Sunday, 11 November 2012

Life after the EMP



September


The electro magnetic pulse, caused by three high altitude nuclear detonations over the USA, affected most of Canada also ( the critical 100km zone near the boarder was well within the effect zone ) on September 26, 2012. Remote northern communities suffered little if any damage.

The first big challenge

When the EMP hits; the lights go out, computers and phones stop working, other electronic devices fail too, vehicles with advanced systems also fail. This last point causes serious immediate problems because; some cars & trucks will crash, wile many emergency vehicles may not function. However the overall death count is likely to be small, because the majority of cars will simply lose power, slow down, pull over and stop.

The more deadly vehicle related event will be the crashing air planes. Most modern planes use commuter controls and fly-by-wire technology, if they lose these systems they will crash. Those taking off and landing will cause disasters near the airports; those already in flight will come down quite randomly. The resulting explosions and fires will not be properly handled because communications are down and many fire trucks are not working.

Game mechanics = small chance of an airplane crash on / near the PCs.

An EMP not only causes the electricity to go out, it also because some devices like power transformers and generators to explode. This will certainly start some fires; the bigger cities are more at risk because they have more of these devices. The danger is not the fires themselves but the response to them. With out phones or an effective fire department, the people who notice the fires will be the ones to deal with them. It is reasonable to assume that a good number of these fires will get out of control.

Thus the first day or so after the EMP is mostly about fighting fires. Unless a community is very lucky, it will lose a few buildings. Some people, perhaps many, will be left homeless.

During the first few nights of near total darkness, there will be a serious fear of looters, especially in the larger cities. With the power out and fires burning the police will be on high alert for people acting crazy or those just trying to take advantage of the situation for criminal activity. Small communities with a spirit of co-operation will suffer less from the paranoia and from the actual violence. However there is still a heightened chance of a misunderstanding turning ugly, as frightened people may shoot first and ask questions later. ( yes even here in Canada )

October  

  
About 5 days after the EMP things will have settled down. The initial state of shock and the frantic activity, which may have included attempts to stuck up supplies, will have passed. The local authorities will have reestablished order, or completely fallen apart.

Almost all businesses will be shut down or converted to essential services. Assuming the local government is not paralyzed, it will have installed a sort of martial law, which will include an effort to restore power. Also high on its list of priorities will be getting emergency vehicles working or improvising replacement vehicles. Electricians and mechanics will be worked hard.

The big challenge of the month

Food supplies will be getting low. The average person has only about one week of supplies at home, this includes stuff in the refrigerator ( which no longer functions ). If the authority has taken quick actions to secure the grocery stores, there will be enough to keep the community going for a few more weeks, but strict rationing will be required. If the authority was unstable or just unlucky, a sizable amount of food may have been looted from the stores by this time.

A smart authority will quickly extend its confiscation of food stuffs to all restaurants and anything which is not a privet dwelling. Unfortunately a lot of food which is stored frozen or refrigerated may have gone bad by the time it is needed.

The sharing of privet supplies will be discussed, but it is a tricky issue. A call for donations to be distributed to the needy can be made, but is unlikely to amount to much. Those smart / paranoid enough to store up supplies will not be expecting the emergency to end soon, ( even though authorities will constantly talk about how things are getting back to normal ) they will want to keep enough to survive the winter.

The local government will, by the end of the month, have to consider the dangerous policy of total food control. This would likely include stripping everyone down to a few days’ basic supplies, then setting up distribution centers. Rationing would be aimed at long term survival, with the assumption no new food would be incoming. The community would have to stretch things until crops could be grown next year. 

A smart authority would quickly amend the hunting law to only allow an animal ( larger than a rabbit ) to be killed, if half the kill went to the community distribution butcher. In these difficult times, people who could hunt would hunt regardless of the law. So getting them to share would be the best policy.

The problem of prisons

They have enough food and supplies for about one week, after that what will become of the inmates? More critically what happens in a prison when the power goes out? Operations, as normal as possible, will continue for several days, as the warden tries to find out what in the world is going on. By the start of October, some hard choices must be made. Are they all left to starve to death?  Are some let go and others executed? 

Although it is unlikely, the inmates may take over the prison. This gains them a number of weapons and a secure base of operations from which they may raid the surrounding area. ( a very good game plot idea )

Winter  


Surviving a Canadian winter requires two things, 1. food & water, 2. shelter & heat. With out power many people will have no water, because most water pumps are electric. There will be a rush in the fall to set up alternative systems for water delivery. Also most people depend on power for their heating systems, natural gas and oil furnaces do not work without electricity. There will be a rush to acquire wood stoves by those who plan to spend winter in their own homes. Of course they also need a supply of wood, which may be very expensive

Again we have a question of community spirit. In larger towns people are more likely to try and profit by providing much needed services and goods. While in smaller towns your neighbor will simply help you go cut down some wood and you will share it.

How many people will die during winter

Most will starve to death, or die in the search for food. In a more general way this also includes people killed trying to steal food. Freezing to death is the next biggest danger, and may be linked to the search for food.

Deaths by fire and smoke inhalation may actually outnumber those who freeze, especially considering most people have very little experience with using fire for heating and cooking. Accidental house fires will be a big problem in winter, because communications may still be down, fire trucks may still be few in number, most roads will not be plowed and the water system may have no pressure. 

Also anyone taking drugs to keep themselves alive will be in trouble. Supplies will quickly run out, with no replacements to be found. Natural herbal drugs may help some, if they can be found. However there will be many among the old who are simply doomed. 

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