The Coming Storm P-01

The Coming Storm       

By Prof. Albert Easterbrook 

Introduction.

If you are sure that everything is going fine, then you may as well read  something else. But if you have some concerns about various modern issues: growing debt, rising unemployment levels, hyper inflation, possible shortages of food and fuel, protests turning into riots, democracy turning into tyranny, then you should consider the following.   

Section I.

The problems we are facing are systemic.

By that I mean: our problems are not caused by simple random events impacting on a system of civilized organization, which is basically sound. Rather it is the system that gives rise to most of our problems.

For example:

We may say democracy is a good theory for how a state should be run. But the actual practice we have in place, called representative democracy, is perverted in a dozen ways. It has flaws which are exploited by an elite few. Intentionally created or not, the flaws are protected and preserved because they benefit the established elite. Thus change is very difficult.

In general the same claim can be made about every organized system in society. They are made to appear useful to the general population, but they are dominated by a small group and serve the interests of these people first.  Just look at the financial sector and the crash of 2008. For example: Pension funds for a million ordinary people went broke because the fund managers made some bad choices. Yet those same companies made profits and those managers made huge bonus pay checks.

How do you spell relief?

The problems we face are systemic. But no one wants to admit this fact, because fixing systemic problem is a huge undertaking. It requires no less than abandoning the old ways and building a new civilization.

What we have been seeing are band aid solutions being applied to the symptoms of our social illness. They do no real good to address the deep rooted problems. For example: The debt is out of control, in many nations, but the only solutions we are offered are cut backs and downsizing. We must shrink government expenses so that we may pay our debt, or more exactly pay the annual interest on the debt. The useful services provided by our tax dollars are decreased, while more and more public money is given over to private hands, for not noticeable benefit to society. All solutions on the table today are just ways for us to continue paying. They do not address the real issue.    

The problems are systemic, the solutions offered are superficial. The people are getting fed up. A storm is coming.

Year after year, there are calls for cut backs from respectable economic experts. We are told to tighten our belts and accept less service in exchange for more taxation. Never mind the talk of tax reductions; those only seem to help corporations and rich people. Year after year, we see the wealth gap widen. According to some statistics; “the top 20% of Americans owned 85% of the country's wealth and the bottom 80% of the population shared the remaining 15%.” We see our pension plans downsized, while top government and corporate executives make sure they are generously provided for in retirement.

Although there are massive attempts to full all the people all the time, propaganda can’t hide the truth entirely. The media can distract many people with mindless entertainment and it can convince some others with pseudo-intellectual rhetoric that everything is OK, but it can not make the reality of higher prices and fewer jobs into a rose garden.

People are getting upset because they are seeing reality hit them in the face directly, or hit those near to them. Reports of conditions far way are always easily dismissed. ‘It may be bad there, but here it’s OK’ we feel for the 1000 of workers who lost their jobs when their factory moved to Asia. But unless it happens in our community and directly impacts the people we know, the event is not taken to be real and meaningful.

What we are seeing today is the result of an increase in the direct experience of the symptoms of our social illness by a large section of the population. Higher prices and lower employment levels are hard to ignore. Getting a job can be hard. Getting one that pays a good subsistence wage for an entire family is almost impossible. Yet even if you have one, you are not safe. The experts, the media, and your boss may all put pressure on you and your co-workers to accept wage or benefit reductions.

It is no exaggeration to say there has been a war between capital and labour over the past few decades. A fight labour has been losing. Although the media has done a fine job of hiding this war behind stories of free market mechanisms; claiming that it’s no person’s fault, that companies must shift locations to the area with lowest labour costs, the truth is people make choices and the market is just another system we invented.

People may not understand it all, but they are starting to realize that our civilization is a mass of broken systems held together by layer after layer of band aids and duct tape.

 

Section II

Our problems are systemic, our solutions have been superficial, and our people are getting upset. What will happen next?

In 2011 we saw world wide protests. Many were peaceful. Most were pointless. By that I mean they achieved no noticeable goals. They expressed anger at numerous targets, with little in the way of practical planed action to correct any problems. The 99% movement wanted the 1% to know that they, the ones who turned out to protest, were no longer sleeping sheep. In the name of the majority of people, they were asking the elected leaders to do something about the injustice and the problems.

But the problems are systemic and the leaders are mostly those who are part of the 1% or those who benefit from exploiting the faulty systems of civilization. So no change resulted from the peaceful movements of last year.

The authorities used a very logical tactic in 2011. They ignored the protests, until the media interest stated to decline, and then they broke up the Occupy camps on the pretext of reasons that had nothing to do with the protest movement. The police said things like; “We are kicking you out of this park not because we are trying to suppress your right to free speech, but because your camp site is unsanitary.” 

Next time things will be different.

There will be a next time because none of the issues have been settled. It will not be as peaceful because both sides learned lessons from last year’s events. The protesters learned to better organize and to plan for police violence. The authorities have learned that ignoring people does not silence them, and so a new method of quieting the mob must be used. Fear has historically been the next weapon of choice. If the protesters can be made to fear, they will not draw attention to themselves, they will be quiet. If they are quiet then it can be claimed that no one is upset over anything. This is extremely faulty logic on the part of the authorities, but it has worked in the past.

We can expect to see more protests, with more violence mixed into them. The police will be accused of using excessive force, with video proof posted all over the web. There will also be claims, some times true other times not, that undercover police in the crowd stated the violence. These events will lead to even more angry protests against the police.

The most significant event will be the preemptive arrests of protest leaders in their homes the day before a major event is scheduled to take place. Although the term ‘domestic terrorist’ may not be used, that is how these people will be treated.

 

The preemptive raids aim to instill fear in the protesters, as well as rounding up the ring leaders of the movement. Although fear will be generated, more protests will be staged.  They will cry out against the unjust abductions and detentions of citizens who were exercising their lawful rights to free speech. They will claim this act as one more proof that government is out of control.   

Section III

At the same time the civil disorder is unfolding we can expect an economic crisis.

Trouble in the Middle East will cause oil costs to rise, so we will be paying an extra dollar per liter.  This mini shock will be a preview of what happen a few months later. As the price at the pumps increases people will try to fill up, while the gassing is good. Rather like they did during the oil crisis of the 1970s. This will cause a temporary shortage as the demand exceeds local capacity. But more importantly it will cause panic.

People who are somewhat informed and paranoid will rush out to buy supplies. Food and other essential goods will on the shopping list. Because any increase in fuel price results in a rise in transport costs and thus in shelf price. “Better stuck up on food before the price on everything goes up a dollar.” will be the logical thinking. Of course doing so will cause a run on the stores.

As people try to stock up on food and fuel, there will be some shortages and ugly fights between over reacting consumers. Expect some full sized riots in the USA. However control will be quickly restored, because there is no real shortage yet. The critical point here is how the ‘Hegelian dialectic’ will come into play.

The mini crisis in supply, more so than the increase in prices, will cause people to demand that the government fix the problem and protect them in the future. The solution that will be proposed will be a centralized emergency supply program. The required laws are already in place, mostly under FEMA control in the USA. This talk about will result in more protests.

 

Section IV

The death of the dollar.

The USA will need to inject more money into its economy, effectively borrowing more billions from the world at large by selling bonds. However with a low interest rate and increasing instability in America, no one will want to buy. China will demand certain economic concessions, assurances more solid than paper promises, before it will consider buying more US bonds. Talks will go on till the last hour, but will fail.

The market meltdown predicted by many will occur. The dollar will be devalued drastically on the world market. The cost of everything will double overnight, and then start climbing day by day. People will panic.

Official announcements try to calm people down, but these fail. As the stock market falls sharply, we see the start of supply runs and bank runs. This is a more serious repeat of the events in the mini shock a few months before. People rush out to stock up on solid goods, some simply wanting useful supplies, and others wanting to buy as many goods as they can before the purchasing power of their money is eroded and their effective savings destroyed. On the stock market activity mirrors this trend with massive selling off of paper investments and the buying of commodities.

Empty store shelves lead to more panic and consumer violence; in some cities riots brake out. Congress is called to emergency session. There is talk of declaring martial law. There is talk of the Chinese refusal to buy bonds, being an economic attack. 

On the world stock market the massive sell off of US bonds begins.

Section V

The China vs. America conflict

After China supported the Far East Asia Tribunal that found both British Prime Minister Blair and US President Bush guilty of war crimes for misleading their own people into unjustly attacking Iraq in 2003, it then declared that it would defend any nation that was assaulted unlawfully ( attacked without UN sanction ) by the USA. Thus China would consider America a rouge ‘terrorist’ state if it acted unilaterally in an offensive way.

When the US eventually uses troops to suppress a riot in one of its own major cities, China supports the use of force as a legitimate way to solve serious internal problems. A short time later China invades Taiwan, claiming it is using force to settle an internal situation. China has always maintained that Taiwan is a rouge province, not an independent state.

This brings America to the edge of war with China.

Section VI

Martial law in the USA is declared during a night of riots and violence. Troops are used to restore (try to restore) order in several major cities. The rioters are in fact not part of the planned protest movements or the armed constitutional militia. This is a critical factor that will be confused during the news coverage. Some looters will claim this is the start of the revolution. But it is in fact an unorganized panic response to the dollar crash.

The real protest movements will turn up a day or two later. They will be organized and peaceful until confronted by the police. They will act in the day time and make clear demands. However violence is almost certain to occur when police try to disperse them.

Intellectuals in the movement will publicize two main camps of ideas regarding how the nation should be reformed. The moderates will demand a sizable restructure of society to conform to historic ideals of democracy and capitalism. The radicals will demand the entire corrupt system be torn out by the roots and a new modern utopia civil order installed.

Section VII

The Civil War

The unofficial start will be the preemptive arrests of protest leaders. At this point any serious militia groups and survivalist/ preppers will know that the end is just around the corner. They will go into hiding or onto high alert, ready to defend against any night time round up by police or Homeland Security agents.  At the same time the extremists will start to put their attack plans into motion.

When the dollar crashes and martial law is declared, the talk of centralized supply control will be taken very seriously. It will become a real project. Citizens will be required to donate food and essential supplies. Corporations holding such goods will be required to sell them to FEMA. This will produce a great deal of anger among some groups.

Some of the best known militia units will actively side with the organized protesters. So there will be a well armed civilian group in the mix when the conflict with police occurs. The militia will not allow a dozen club swinging cops to beat half to death an unarmed woman. There will be blood in the streets.

The government will outlaw all armed militia groups. The round up of suspected rebels will begin. Small acts of resistance will broom into big media events, despite the official network policy of filtering events to ensure the public remains calm.

But it is only when sizable organized groups start to refuse “illegal orders” that the civil war can officially be said to have started.